Bama Signal: Alabama Basketball Season Preview — October 31, 2026

Bama Signal: Alabama Basketball Season Preview — October 31, 2026

Editorial cutoff: October 31, 2026, 12:45 a.m. CT; season call updated 1:29 a.m. CT, before any games. Public information only.

Bama Signal now covers Alabama basketball too. This preview lays out what the polls, the computer ratings and the podcasts say, where they disagree, what the numbers show, and our call for the season. We'll grade the call on Selection Sunday.

The Signal

Nobody agrees on this team. Nationally, the rankings run from 9th (KenPom's computer) to 24th (Jon Rothstein). In the SEC, they run from 2nd (KenPom) to the bottom half (one Field of 68 host), with the media poll in the middle at 5th. The disagreement comes down to one trade. Last season's team ranked 3rd in the country on offense but 57th on defense, so Nate Oats rebuilt it taller, to rebound and defend. Bart Torvik's projection expects exactly that: the offense slides from 3rd to 18th and the defense climbs from 57th to 21st. The three exhibitions are an early warning that the defensive half isn't there yet: opponents scored 87 a game and grabbed 34% of their own misses. Our game-by-game model starts at 20 wins. Oats has beaten Torvik's preseason projection in 5 of his last 6 seasons, so our call is higher.

What they're saying

• Nationally, the polls and experts cluster around 20th: No. 20 in the preseason AP poll (Yahoo Sports, Oct. 19), No. 20 in The Field of 68's Top 25 (Oct. 26), No. 21 in RotoWire's preview (RotoWire, Oct. 7) and No. 24 in Jon Rothstein's Top 45. In the SEC, the media picked Alabama 5th, with Amari Allen on the preseason All-SEC team (Alabama Athletics, Oct. 12).
• Everyone's star is Amari Allen. Rothstein, who has watched Alabama in the preseason: Allen "looks like he could have an All-American-type caliber season" (Inside College Basketball Now, Oct. 29). Cover Crimson's first question for the season: can he go from very good to "a genuine star" while possibly taking on some point guard duties? (Cover Crimson, Oct. 28).
• Field of 68 split down the middle. One host called Alabama "my biggest sleeper in the conference." Another's bold prediction: Alabama finishes in the bottom half, because a team built around 35 threes a game added size but not shooting (The Field of 68: After Dark, Oct. 5).
• The local shows are optimistic, with a rebounding caveat. Cover Crimson: height "doesn't necessarily translate" into rebounding. BamaOnLine's hosts see a Sweet 16 team, and one sees 13 or 14 SEC wins and a double bye (BamaOnLine Podcast, Oct. 30).

What the numbers say

Nationally

In the SEC (16 teams)

Sources: KenPom via Saturday Down South (Oct. 11); Torvik's preseason ratings from barttorvik.com (read Oct. 31).

• The roster trade is in the projections. Last season Torvik rated Alabama's offense 3rd in the country and its defense 57th. The team went 25-10 (13-5 SEC) and lost to eventual champion Michigan in the Sweet 16 (Yahoo Sports, Alabama Athletics). This year Torvik projects offense 18th, defense 21st, a 19-11 record and a 10.3-7.7 SEC mark, the third-best projected SEC record behind Florida and Tennessee (barttorvik.com).
• The exhibitions don't show the defensive fix yet. Across wins over Furman (111-93), Ole Miss (92-84) and Auburn (87-85), opponents scored 87.3 points a game and rebounded 34% of their own misses; Auburn alone grabbed 22 offensive rebounds (Furman, Ole Miss, Auburn box scores). Inference: exhibitions use mixed lineups, and Alabama played them without Aden Holloway, so treat this as a warning light, not a verdict.
• Allen carried the exhibitions: 61 points on 36 shots in three games, with 13 assists and 9 turnovers (same box scores).
• Holloway returns Nov. 9 against Oakland, after a five-game suspension that covered the three exhibitions and the first two games, per Saturday Down South (Oct. 6); the Oakland date is on the ESPN schedule. Last season he averaged 16.8 points (RotoWire).

How we built the call

1. A game-by-game model. We gave Alabama a win chance in each of its 32 games, based on Bart Torvik's preseason ratings for both teams and whether the game is home, away or on a neutral floor. (For the two Players Era opponents not yet set, we used the average of Torvik's 20th- to 60th-ranked teams.) As a check, it matches Torvik's own projection for the 30 games ESPN lists: 19.0 wins. Over all 32 games it comes out at 20 wins and 10.3 SEC wins. Preseason ratings are never exact, so we also simulated the season with that uncertainty built in: 8 seasons in 10 land between 15 and 25 wins, and between 7 and 14 SEC wins. Where the season swings: five December games (at Miami, Houston, St. John's, at South Florida, Iowa), worth 2.5 wins, and nine SEC road games, worth 3.9.

2. Oats vs. the preseason projection. How each Oats team finished, compared with Torvik's preseason rating. Rank is national (preseason → final); SEC wins are projected → actual (preseason snapshot; final ratings for each year).

Leaving out his first season, his teams beat the projection 5 times in 6 and won 2.8 more SEC games a season than projected, on average (the one miss included). Counting his first season, it's 5 of 7 and 2.1 more wins. His offense finished better than its preseason projection in all seven seasons. This year's projection has it 18th; in the exhibitions it still took 34 threes a game and made 36% (Cole Cloer: 8 of 18).

3. The media pick points the same way. Every time the SEC media picked Oats 4th or 5th (2020-21, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2025-26), Alabama finished tied for 2nd or better. Both times it picked him 1st or 2nd, Alabama finished lower (BamaHammer, Oct. 12, citing Blake Byler). It's six seasons, so we treat it as support, not proof.

4. Rebounding is the risk. Oats's teams have never been good on the defensive glass. Every season, opponents grabbed 27.9% to 32.8% of their own misses, which ranked between 150th and 302nd nationally (Torvik four factors). His two best teams by Torvik's final rating (2022-23, 2nd; 2024-25, 5th) were near average, at 28-29% (150th-154th). Last season was 32.8% (289th), and the exhibitions were 34%. The target is 29%.

Floor and ceiling

How good could this team be? We re-ran the model with Alabama rated the way Oats teams actually finished in three kinds of seasons, and once with Torvik's numbers as they stand.

• High end: offense top 5 and rebounding near average, like 2024-25 (offense 3rd, defense 26th). That team was a No. 2 seed and reached the Elite Eight.
• What usually happens: an elite offense with a leaky defense, like 2023-24 and 2025-26 (offense 2nd-3rd, defense 57th-121st). Both were No. 4 seeds.
• Torvik as is: offense 18th, defense 21st.
• Floor: bad rebounding, and the bigs cost the offense, like 2021-22 (offense 16th, defense 100th). That team was a No. 6 seed and lost in the first round.

How we set the seeds: seed lines No. 1 through No. 10 each have exactly four teams, so we placed Alabama by its national rating (1st to 4th is a No. 1 seed, 5th to 8th a No. 2, and so on). That placement is the rough part, because the committee also rewards quality wins, and Oats's tough schedules have sometimes earned a better seed than his rating: 9th nationally in 2020-21 but a No. 2 seed, and 31st in 2021-22 but a No. 6.

Across all the simulated seasons (with the same allowance for rating error), Alabama gets a top-four seed 40% of the time and a No. 1 or 2 seed 18% of the time. In 12% it rates outside the top 48 nationally, our stand-in for missing the tournament. That's the true floor: Oats's first team, in 2019-20, went 16-15. Sources: final ratings from Torvik; seeds and results for 2024-25, 2023-24, 2025-26, 2021-22 and 2020-21.

Our call sits between "what usually happens" and the high end, which is where Oats's record against projections points.

Our season call

22-10 before the SEC Tournament, 12-6 in the SEC (a top-four finish and a double bye), and a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. How we got there:

• Start with the model: 20 wins and 10.3 SEC wins.
• Add two SEC wins for Oats's record of beating preseason projections. That's a little under his 2.8-win average since his first season, and close to his 2.1 average if that season counts. The adjustment is our judgment, not part of the model.
• Know the odds: on the model alone, 12 or more SEC wins is a 33% chance (27% if Torvik's ratings were exactly right; the 33% includes our assumed allowance for rating error). So the call rests on the Oats pattern.
• The seed is also our judgment: where we think a 22-10 team with a top-four SEC finish lands.

We first published 21-11, 11-7 and a No. 5 seed earlier today, and raised the call after this analysis, before any games.

What would make it wrong:

1. Rebounding. If opponents keep getting a third of their misses back, the defense won't climb, and we'd expect something nearer 9-9 in the SEC. (Lower.)

2. The point guard job. Allen is expected to play some point guard, per Cover Crimson and The Crimson Crossover; he had 9 turnovers to 13 assists in the exhibitions. (Lower if it sticks.)

3. Holloway at full strength. Last season's second-leading scorer back on Nov. 9, next to Allen, could be one of the best scoring pairs in the SEC, as Cover Crimson argues. (Higher.)

How we'll grade it, on Selection Sunday: Hit = SEC record within one game and seed within one line; Close = SEC record within two games and seed within two lines; Miss = anything else, including missing the NCAA Tournament. We'll show the 22-10 regular-season record and the top-four finish next to the grade.

Worth your time

• Nate Oats previews Alabama's freshmen and transfers — BamaCentral. The coach's own read on the newcomers (June 4).
• The Crimson Crossover: "Alabama Basketball is back!" — an hour on how the new lineups might fit, from an Alabama-only basketball show (Oct. 8).

Source Trail

• Polls and previews: AP poll via Yahoo Sports; Oats's media picks vs. finishes via BamaHammer; Holloway's suspension via Saturday Down South; last season's Sweet 16 via Alabama Athletics; SEC media poll and preseason All-SEC via Alabama Athletics; RotoWire preview; KenPom via Saturday Down South.
• Data: Bart Torvik preseason snapshots (time machine), final ratings and four factors, 2019-20 to 2026-27 (2027 data file, 2026 data file); official exhibition box scores (RollTide.com); ESPN team stats and schedule.
• Podcasts (machine transcripts): Inside College Basketball Now (Oct. 29), The Field of 68: After Dark (Oct. 5 and Oct. 26), Cover Crimson (Oct. 28), BamaOnLine Podcast (Oct. 30), The Crimson Crossover (Oct. 8).